Managing Risk using Rolling Forecasts in Energy-Limited and Stochastic Energy Systems

Abstract: We study risk-aware linear policy approximations for the optimal operation of an energy system with stochastic wind power, storage, and limited fuel. The resulting problem is a sequential decision-making problem with rolling forecasts. In addition to a risk-neutral objective, this paper formulates two risk-aware objectives that control the conditional value-at-risk of system cost and the buffered probability of exceeding a predefined threshold of unserved load. The resulting policy uses a parameter-modified cost function approximation that reduces the computational load compared to the direct inclusion of those risk measures in the problem objective. We demonstrate our method on a numerical case study.