Neutrino cosmology after DESI: tightest mass upper limits, preference for the normal ordering, and tension with terrestrial observations

Abstract: The recent DESI Baryon Acoustic Oscillation measurements have led to tight upper limits on the neutrino mass sum, potentially in tension with oscillation constraints requiring $\sum m_{\nu} \gtrsim 0.06\,{\text{eV}}$. Under the physically motivated assumption of positive $\sum m_{\nu}$, we study the extent to which these limits are tightened by adding other available cosmological probes, and robustly quantify the preference for the normal mass ordering over the inverted one, as well as the tension between cosmological and terrestrial data. Combining DESI data with Cosmic Microwave Background measurements and several late-time background probes, the tightest $2\sigma$ limit we find without including a local $H_0$ prior is $\sum m_{\nu}<0.05\,{\text{eV}}$. This leads to a strong preference for the normal ordering, with Bayes factor relative to the inverted one of $46.5$. Depending on the dataset combination and tension metric adopted, we quantify the tension between cosmological and terrestrial observations as ranging between $2.5\sigma$ and $5\sigma$. These results are strenghtened when allowing for a time-varying dark energy component with equation of state lying in the physically motivated non-phantom regime, $w(z) \geq -1$, highlighting an interesting synergy between the nature of dark energy and laboratory probes of the mass ordering. If these tensions persist and cannot be attributed to systematics, either or both standard neutrino (particle) physics or the underlying cosmological model will have to be questioned.