Systematic bias due to mismodelling precessing binary black hole ringdown

Abstract: Accurate waveform modelling is crucial for parameter estimation in gravitational wave astronomy, impacting our understanding of source properties and the testing of general relativity. The precession of orbital and spin angular momenta in binary black hole (BBH) systems with misaligned spins presents a complex challenge for gravitational waveform modelling. Current precessing BBH waveform models employ a co-precessing frame, which precesses along with the binary. In this paper, we investigate a source of bias stemming from the mismodelling of ringdown frequency in the co-precessing frame. We find that this mismodelling of the co-precessing frame ringdown frequency introduces systematic biases in parameter estimation, for high mass systems in particular, and in the Inspiral-Merger-Ringdown (IMR)-consistency test of general relativity. Employing the waveform model IMRPhenomXPHM, we conduct an IMR-consistency test using a Fisher matrix analysis across parameter space, as well as full injected signal parameter estimation studies. Our results show that this mismodelling particularly affects BBH systems with high mass ratios, high spin magnitudes, and highly inclined spins. These findings suggest inconsistencies for all waveform models which do not address this issue.