Semi-on-Demand Off-Peak Transit Services with Shared Autonomous Vehicles -- Service Planning, Simulation, and Analysis in Munich, Germany

Abstract: This study investigates the implementation of semi-on-demand (SoD) hybrid-route services using Shared Autonomous Vehicles (SAVs) on existing transit lines. SoD services combine the cost efficiency of fixed-route buses with the flexibility of on-demand services. SAVs first serve all scheduled fixed-route stops, then drop off and pick up passengers in the pre-determined flexible-route portion, and return to the fixed route. This study addresses four key questions: optimal fleet and vehicle sizes for peak-hour fixed-route services with SAVs and during transition (from drivers to autonomous vehicles), optimal off-peak SoD service planning, and suitable use cases. The methodology combines analytical modeling for service planning with agent-based simulation for operational analysis. We examine ten bus routes in Munich, Germany, considering full SAV and transition scenarios with varying proportions of drivers. Our findings demonstrate that the lower operating costs of SAVs improve service quality through increased frequency and smaller vehicles, even in transition scenarios. The reduced headway lowers waiting time and also favors more flexible-route operation in SoD services. The optimal SoD settings range from fully flexible to hybrid routes, where higher occupancy from the terminus favors shorter flexible routes. During the transition phase, limited fleet size and higher headways constrain the benefits of flexible-route operations. The simulation results corroborate the SoD benefits of door-to-door convenience, attracting more passengers without excessive detours and operator costs at moderate flexible-route lengths, and validate the analytical model.