Examining Independence in Ensemble Sentiment Analysis: A Study on the Limits of Large Language Models Using the Condorcet Jury Theorem

Abstract: This paper explores the application of the Condorcet Jury theorem to the domain of sentiment analysis, specifically examining the performance of various LLMs compared to simpler NLP models. The theorem posits that a majority vote classifier should enhance predictive accuracy, provided that individual classifiers' decisions are independent. Our empirical study tests this theoretical framework by implementing a majority vote mechanism across different models, including advanced LLMs such as ChatGPT 4. Contrary to expectations, the results reveal only marginal improvements in performance when incorporating larger models, suggesting a lack of independence among them. This finding aligns with the hypothesis that despite their complexity, LLMs do not significantly outperform simpler models in reasoning tasks within sentiment analysis, showing the practical limits of model independence in the context of advanced NLP tasks.