Integrating Bayesian Approaches and Expert Knowledge for Forecasting Continuous Glucose Monitoring Values in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

Abstract: Precise and timely forecasting of blood glucose levels is essential for effective diabetes management. While extensive research has been conducted on Type 1 diabetes mellitus, Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) presents unique challenges due to its heterogeneity, underscoring the need for specialized blood glucose forecasting systems. This study introduces a novel blood glucose forecasting system, applied to a dataset of 100 patients from the ShanghaiT2DM study. Our study uniquely integrates knowledge-driven and data-driven approaches, leveraging expert knowledge to validate and interpret the relationships among diabetes-related variables and deploying the data-driven approach to provide accurate forecast blood glucose levels. The Bayesian network approach facilitates the analysis of dependencies among various diabetes-related variables, thus enabling the inference of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) trajectories in similar individuals with T2DM. By incorporating past CGM data including inference CGM trajectories, dietary records, and individual-specific information, the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model effectively forecasts glucose levels across time intervals ranging from 15 to 60 minutes. Forecast results show a mean absolute error of 6.41 mg/dL, a root mean square error of 8.29 mg/dL, and a mean absolute percentage error of 5.28%, for a 15-minute prediction horizon. This study makes the first application of the ShanghaiT2DM dataset for glucose level forecasting, considering the influences of diabetes-related variables. Its findings establish a foundational framework for developing personalized diabetes management strategies, potentially enhancing diabetes care through more accurate and timely interventions.