Bayesian Dynamic Factor Models for High-dimensional Matrix-valued Time Series

Abstract: High-dimensional matrix-valued time series are of significant interest in economics and finance, with prominent examples including cross region macroeconomic panels and firms' financial data panels. We introduce a class of Bayesian matrix dynamic factor models that utilize matrix structures to identify more interpretable factor patterns and factor impacts. Our model accommodates time-varying volatility, adjusts for outliers, and allows cross-sectional correlations in the idiosyncratic components. To determine the dimension of the factor matrix, we employ an importance-sampling estimator based on the cross-entropy method to estimate marginal likelihoods. Through a series of Monte Carlo experiments, we show the properties of the factor estimators and the performance of the marginal likelihood estimator in correctly identifying the true dimensions of the factor matrices. Applying our model to a macroeconomic dataset and a financial dataset, we demonstrate its ability in unveiling interesting features within matrix-valued time series.