Identification and estimation for matrix time series CP-factor models

Abstract: We propose a new method for identifying and estimating the CP-factor models for matrix time series. Unlike the generalized eigenanalysis-based method of Chang et al.(2023) for which the convergence rates may suffer from small eigengaps as the asymptotic theory is based on some matrix perturbation analysis, the proposed new method enjoys faster convergence rates which are free from any eigengaps. It achieves this by turning the problem into a joint diagonalization of several matrices whose elements are determined by a basis of a linear system, and by choosing the basis carefully to avoid near co-linearity (see Proposition 5 and Section 4.3 below). Furthermore, unlike Chang et al.(2023) which requires the two factor loading matrices to be full-ranked, the new method can handle rank-deficient factor loading matrices. Illustration with both simulated and real matrix time series data shows the advantages of the proposed new method.