Evaluating internal and external dissonance of belief dynamics in social systems

Abstract: Belief dynamics are fundamental to human behavior and social coordination. Individuals rely on accurate beliefs to make decisions, and shared beliefs form the basis of successful cooperation. Traditional studies often examined beliefs in isolation, but recent perspectives suggest beliefs operate as interconnected systems, both within individuals and across social networks. To better understand belief dynamics, we propose an extension of Galesic et al.'s model, which allows individuals to weigh internal and social dissonance based on belief certainty. Our model suggests that belief convergence occurs in two patterns: internal alignment, where beliefs become ideologically consistent but socially disagreeable, or social alignment, where beliefs become socially consistent but internally varied. These results highlight a competition between internal and social belief networks, with one network often dominating. Our findings suggest that belief dynamics tend to settle at extremes, indicating a need for future models to incorporate negative feedback to reflect more nuanced societal belief changes.