Prediction of Cardiovascular Risk Factors from Retinal Fundus Images using CNNs

Abstract: Early detection of cardiovascular disease risk factors is essential to alter the course of the disease. Previous studies showed that deep learning can successfully be used to detect such risk factors from retinal images. This study uses convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to predict the cardiovascular disease risk factors age, BMI, smoking status, HbA1c, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, gender and total cholesterol from retinal images from the UK Biobank data set. By applying contrast enhancement on the retinal images in the form of Gaussian filtering and deriving predictions on individual basis through the combination of left and right retinal image predictions, an increased prediction performance could be derived for the variables age (R2 score of 0.81) and systolic blood pressure (R2 score of 0.39) compared to previous studies using retinal images from the UK Biobank data set. Further, this is the first study that tries to predict HbA1c and total cholesterol from UK Biobank retinal fundus images. For these variables the models achieved an R2 score of 0.0579 for predicting HbA1c and an R2 score of 0.0157 for predicting total cholesterol. These results show that the value of deriving predictions for these two risk factors from retinal fundus images from the UK Biobank data set is limited.