Advancing Gasoline Consumption Forecasting: A Novel Hybrid Model Integrating Transformers, LSTM, and CNN

Abstract: Iran, endowed with abundant hydrocarbon resources, plays a crucial role in the global energy landscape. Gasoline, as a critical fuel, significantly supports the nation's transportation sector. Accurate forecasting of gasoline consumption is essential for strategic resource management and environmental planning. This research introduces a novel approach to predicting monthly gasoline consumption using a hybrid Transformer-LSTM-CNN model, which integrates the strengths of Transformer networks, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN). This advanced architecture offers a superior alternative to conventional methods such as artificial neural networks and regression models by capturing both short- and long-term dependencies in time series data. By leveraging the self-attention mechanism of Transformers, the temporal memory of LSTMs, and the local pattern detection of CNNs, our hybrid model delivers improved prediction accuracy. Implemented using Python, the model provides precise future gasoline consumption forecasts and evaluates the environmental impact through the analysis of greenhouse gas emissions. This study examines gasoline consumption trends from 2007 to 2021, which rose from 64.5 million liters per day in 2007 to 99.80 million liters per day in 2021. Our proposed model forecasts consumption levels up to 2031, offering a valuable tool for policymakers and energy analysts. The results highlight the superiority of this hybrid model in improving the accuracy of gasoline consumption forecasts, reinforcing the need for advanced machine learning techniques to optimize resource management and mitigate environmental risks in the energy sector.