Tackling extreme urban heat: a machine learning approach to assess the impacts of climate change and the efficacy of climate adaptation strategies in urban microclimates

Abstract: As urbanization and climate change progress, urban heat becomes a priority for climate adaptation efforts. High temperatures concentrated in urban heat can drive increased risk of heat-related death and illness as well as increased energy demand for cooling. However, estimating the effects of urban heat is an ongoing field of research typically burdened by an imprecise description of the built environment, significant computational cost, and a lack of high-resolution estimates of the impacts of climate change. Here, we present open-source, computationally efficient machine learning methods that can improve the accuracy of urban temperature estimates when compared to historical reanalysis data. These models are applied to residential buildings in Los Angeles, and we compare the energy benefits of heat mitigation strategies to the impacts of climate change. We find that cooling demand is likely to increase substantially through midcentury, but engineered high-albedo surfaces could lessen this increase by more than 50%. The corresponding increase in heating demand complicates this narrative, but total annual energy use from combined heating and cooling with electric heat pumps in the Los Angeles urban climate is shown to benefit from the engineered cooling strategies under both current and future climates.