Rapid response to fast viral evolution using AlphaFold 3-assisted topological deep learning

Abstract: The fast evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and other infectious viruses poses a grand challenge to the rapid response in terms of viral tracking, diagnostics, and design and manufacture of monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) and vaccines, which are both time-consuming and costly. This underscores the need for efficient computational approaches. Recent advancements, like topological deep learning (TDL), have introduced powerful tools for forecasting emerging dominant variants, yet they require deep mutational scanning (DMS) of viral surface proteins and associated three-dimensional (3D) protein-protein interaction (PPI) complex structures. We propose an AlphaFold 3 (AF3)-assisted multi-task topological Laplacian (MT-TopLap) strategy to address this need. MT-TopLap combines deep learning with topological data analysis (TDA) models, such as persistent Laplacians (PL) to extract detailed topological and geometric characteristics of PPIs, thereby enhancing the prediction of DMS and binding free energy (BFE) changes upon virus mutations. Validation with four experimental DMS datasets of SARS-CoV-2 spike receptor-binding domain (RBD) and the human angiotensin-converting enzyme-2 (ACE2) complexes indicates that our AF3 assisted MT-TopLap strategy maintains robust performance, with only an average 1.1% decrease in Pearson correlation coefficients (PCC) and an average 9.3% increase in root mean square errors (RMSE), compared with the use of experimental structures. Additionally, AF3-assisted MT-TopLap achieved a PCC of 0.81 when tested with a SARS-CoV-2 HK.3 variant DMS dataset, confirming its capability to accurately predict BFE changes and adapt to new experimental data, thereby showcasing its potential for rapid and effective response to fast viral evolution.