Robust Quickest Change Detection with Sampling Control

Abstract: The problem of quickest detection of a change in the distribution of a sequence of random variables is studied. The objective is to detect the change with the minimum possible delay, subject to constraints on the rate of false alarms and the cost of observations used in the decision-making process. The post-change distribution of the data is known only within a distribution family. It is shown that if the post-change family has a distribution that is least favorable in a well-defined sense, then a computationally efficient algorithm can be designed that uses an on-off observation control strategy to save the cost of observations. In addition, the algorithm can detect the change robustly while avoiding unnecessary false alarms. It is shown that the algorithm is also asymptotically robust optimal as the rate of false alarms goes to zero for every fixed constraint on the cost of observations. The algorithm's effectiveness is validated on simulated data and real public health data.