Uncertainty Estimation for Path Loss and Radio Metric Models

Abstract: This research leverages Conformal Prediction (CP) in the form of Conformal Predictive Systems (CPS) to accurately estimate uncertainty in a suite of ML-based radio metric models [1] as well as in a 2-D map-based ML path loss model [2]. Utilizing diverse difficulty estimators, we construct 95% confidence prediction intervals (PIs) that are statistically robust. Our experiments demonstrate that CPS models, trained on Toronto datasets, generalize effectively to other cities such as Vancouver and Montreal, maintaining high coverage and reliability. Furthermore, the employed difficulty estimators identify challenging samples, leading to measurable reductions in RMSE as dataset difficulty decreases. These findings highlight the effectiveness of scalable and reliable uncertainty estimation through CPS in wireless network modeling, offering important potential insights for network planning, operations, and spectrum management.