CT-PatchTST: Channel-Time Patch Time-Series Transformer for Long-Term Renewable Energy Forecasting

Abstract: Accurately predicting renewable energy output is crucial for the efficient integration of solar and wind power into modern energy systems. This study develops and evaluates an advanced deep learning model, Channel-Time Patch Time-Series Transformer (CT-PatchTST), to forecast the power output of photovoltaic and wind energy systems using annual offshore wind power, onshore wind power, and solar power generation data from Denmark. While the original Patch Time-Series Transformer(PatchTST) model employs a channel-independent (CI) approach, it tends to overlook inter-channel relationships during training, potentially leading to a loss of critical information. To address this limitation and further leverage the benefits of increased data granularity brought by CI, we propose CT-PatchTST. This enhanced model improves the processing of inter-channel information while maintaining the advantages of the channel-independent approach. The predictive performance of CT-PatchTST is rigorously analyzed, demonstrating its ability to provide precise and reliable energy forecasts. This work contributes to improving the predictability of renewable energy systems, supporting their broader adoption and integration into energy grids.