Toward Safe Integration of UAM in Terminal Airspace: UAM Route Feasibility Assessment using Probabilistic Aircraft Trajectory Prediction

Abstract: Integrating Urban Air Mobility (UAM) into airspace managed by Air Traffic Control (ATC) poses significant challenges, particularly in congested terminal environments. This study proposes a framework to assess the feasibility of UAM route integration using probabilistic aircraft trajectory prediction. By leveraging conditional Normalizing Flows, the framework predicts short-term trajectory distributions of conventional aircraft, enabling UAM vehicles to dynamically adjust speeds and maintain safe separations. The methodology was applied to airspace over Seoul metropolitan area, encompassing interactions between UAM and conventional traffic at multiple altitudes and lanes. The results reveal that different physical locations of lanes and routes experience varying interaction patterns and encounter dynamics. For instance, Lane 1 at lower altitudes (1,500 ft and 2,000 ft) exhibited minimal interactions with conventional aircraft, resulting in the largest separations and the most stable delay proportions. In contrast, Lane 4 near the airport experienced more frequent and complex interactions due to its proximity to departing traffic. The limited trajectory data for departing aircraft in this region occasionally led to tighter separations and increased operational challenges. This study underscores the potential of predictive modeling in facilitating UAM integration while highlighting critical trade-offs between safety and efficiency. The findings contribute to refining airspace management strategies and offer insights for scaling UAM operations in complex urban environments.