Chinese Historical Documents Reveal Multi-Century Seasonal Shifts in Tropical Cyclone Landfalls

Abstract: Paleoclimate records provide a critical long-term perspective on natural climate variability, essential for understanding contemporary climate change. However, many existing paleoclimate proxies lack the temporal resolution to analyze seasonality shifts in high-impact extremes like tropical cyclones (TCs). This study compares records from Chinese historical documents with modern climate reanalyses and simulations to investigate multi-century shifts of TC landfalls in East Asia. Comparing pre-industrial (1776-1850) and contemporary (1946-2020) landfall timing suggests an earlier seasonal occurrence in the contemporary era. However, the magnitude of this shift is small relative to the pronounced multi-century variations evident in the historical records, complicating attribution solely to anthropogenic forcings. Furthermore, the recent shift is inconsistent with the relationship between the TC seasonality and the equatorial Pacific temperature revealed by pre-industrial and contemporary-era data. By revealing significant natural variability over centuries, this study provides crucial long-term context essential for interpreting contemporary and future TC trends.