Exact Bayesian inference for Markov switching diffusions

Abstract: We give the first exact Bayesian methodology for the problem of inference in discretely observed regime switching diffusions. We design an MCMC and an MCEM algorithm that target the exact posterior of diffusion parameters and the latent regime process. The algorithms are exact in the sense that they target the correct posterior distribution of the continuous model, so that the errors are due to Monte Carlo only. Switching diffusion models extend ordinary diffusions by allowing for jumps in instantaneous drift and volatility. The jumps are driven by a latent, continuous time Markov switching process. We illustrate the method on numerical examples, including an empirical analysis of the method's scalability in the length of the time series, and find that it is comparable in computational cost with discrete approximations while avoiding their shortcomings.