On Erlang mixture approximations for differential equations with distributed time delays

Abstract: In this paper, we propose a general approach for approximate simulation and analysis of delay differential equations (DDEs) with distributed time delays based on methods for ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The key innovation is that we 1) approximate the kernel by the probability density function of an Erlang mixture and 2) use the linear chain trick to transform the approximate DDEs to ODEs. Furthermore, we prove that an approximation with infinitely many terms converges for continuous and bounded kernels and for specific choices of the coefficients. We compare the steady states of the original DDEs and their stability criteria to those of the approximate system of ODEs, and we propose an approach based on bisection and least-squares estimation for determining optimal parameter values in the approximation. Finally, we present numerical examples that demonstrate the accuracy and convergence rate obtained with the optimal parameters and the efficacy of the proposed approach for bifurcation analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. The numerical examples involve a modified logistic equation and a point reactor kinetics model of a molten salt nuclear fission reactor.