A meta-model of belief dynamics with Personal, Expressed and Social beliefs

Abstract: Beliefs are central to individual decision-making and societal dynamics, yet they are shaped through complex interactions between personal cognition and social environments. Traditional models of belief dynamics often fail to capture the interplay between internal belief systems and external influences. This paper introduces the Personal, Expressed, and Social Beliefs (PES) meta-model, which integrates personal beliefs, outwardly expressed beliefs, and perceptions of others' beliefs. The PES meta-model provides a flexible structure to model belief dynamics, incorporating processes like social influence, authenticity, ego projection, and conformity. It accommodates wide range of existing models, of the Voter, Ising, DeGroot and bounded confidence types, allowing for comparison and extension of the models within a unified framework. Through a case study on the misperception of public support for climate change policies, the PES meta-model demonstrates its capacity to capture complex psychological and social phenomena. This work highlights the utility of the PES meta-model in advancing theoretical understanding and practical applications in belief dynamics research.