Probabilistic Insights for Efficient Exploration Strategies in Reinforcement Learning

Abstract: We investigate efficient exploration strategies of environments with unknown stochastic dynamics and sparse rewards. Specifically, we analyze first the impact of parallel simulations on the probability of reaching rare states within a finite time budget. Using simplified models based on random walks and L\'evy processes, we provide analytical results that demonstrate a phase transition in reaching probabilities as a function of the number of parallel simulations. We identify an optimal number of parallel simulations that balances exploration diversity and time allocation. Additionally, we analyze a restarting mechanism that exponentially enhances the probability of success by redirecting efforts toward more promising regions of the state space. Our findings contribute to a more qualitative and quantitative theory of some exploration schemes in reinforcement learning, offering insights into developing more efficient strategies for environments characterized by rare events.