Interference-Aware Edge Runtime Prediction with Conformal Matrix Completion

Abstract: Accurately estimating workload runtime is a longstanding goal in computer systems, and plays a key role in efficient resource provisioning, latency minimization, and various other system management tasks. Runtime prediction is particularly important for managing increasingly complex distributed systems in which more sophisticated processing is pushed to the edge in search of better latency. Previous approaches for runtime prediction in edge systems suffer from poor data efficiency or require intensive instrumentation; these challenges are compounded in heterogeneous edge computing environments, where historical runtime data may be sparsely available and instrumentation is often challenging. Moreover, edge computing environments often feature multi-tenancy due to limited resources at the network edge, potentially leading to interference between workloads and further complicating the runtime prediction problem. Drawing from insights across machine learning and computer systems, we design a matrix factorization-inspired method that generates accurate interference-aware predictions with tight provably-guaranteed uncertainty bounds. We validate our method on a novel WebAssembly runtime dataset collected from 24 unique devices, achieving a prediction error of 5.2% -- 2x better than a naive application of existing methods.