Leveraging Social Media and Google Trends to Identify Waves of Avian Influenza Outbreaks in USA and Canada

Abstract: Avian Influenza Virus (AIV) poses significant threats to the poultry industry, humans, domestic animals, and wildlife health worldwide. Monitoring this infectious disease is important for rapid and effective response to potential outbreaks. Conventional avian influenza surveillance systems have exhibited limitations in providing timely alerts for potential outbreaks. This study aimed to examine the idea of using online activity on social media, and Google searches to improve the identification of AIV in the early stage of an outbreak in a region. To this end, to evaluate the feasibility of this approach, we collected historical data on online user activities from X (formerly known as Twitter) and Google Trends and assessed the statistical correlation of activities in a region with the AIV outbreak officially reported case numbers. In order to mitigate the effect of the noisy content on the outbreak identification process, LLMs were utilized to filter out the relevant online activity on X that could be indicative of an outbreak. Additionally, we conducted trend analysis on the selected internet-based data sources in terms of their timeliness and statistical significance in identifying AIV outbreaks. Moreover, we performed an ablation study using autoregressive forecasting models to identify the contribution of X and Google Trends in predicting AIV outbreaks. The experimental findings illustrate that online activity on social media and search engine trends can detect avian influenza outbreaks, providing alerts earlier compared to official reports. This study suggests that real-time analysis of social media outlets and Google search trends can be used in avian influenza outbreak early warning systems, supporting epidemiologists and animal health professionals in informed decision-making.