Dynamics of a coupled nonlocal PDE-ODE system with spatial memory: well-posedness, stability, and bifurcation analysis

Abstract: Nonlocal aggregation-diffusion models, when coupled with a spatial map, can capture cognitive and memory-based influences on animal movement and population-level patterns. In this work, we study a one-dimensional reaction-diffusion-aggregation system in which a population's spatiotemporal dynamics are tightly linked to a separate, dynamically updating map. Depending on the local population density, the map amplifies and suppresses certain landscape regions and contributes to directed movement through a nonlocal spatial kernel. After establishing the well-posedness of the coupled PDE-ODE system, we perform a linear stability analysis to identify critical aggregation strengths. We then perform a rigorous bifurcation analysis to determine the precise solution behavior at a steady state near these critical thresholds, deciding whether the bifurcation is sub- or supercritical and the stability of the emergent branch. Based on our analytical findings, we highlight several interesting biological consequences. First, we observe that whether the spatial map functions as attractive or repulsive depends precisely on the map's relative excitation rate versus adaptory rate: when the excitatory effect is larger (smaller) than the adaptatory effect, the map is attractive (repulsive). Second, in the absence of growth dynamics, populations can only form a single aggregate. Therefore, the presence of intraspecific competition is necessary to drive multi-peaked aggregations, reflecting higher-frequency spatial patterns. Finally, we show how subcritical bifurcations can trigger abrupt shifts in average population abundance, suggesting a tipping-point phenomenon in which moderate changes in movement parameters can cause a sudden population decline.