A Two-Stage Stochastic Model for Road-Rail Intermodal Freight Transportation Under Demand and Capacity Uncertainty

Abstract: With the steady increase in global logistics and freight transport demand, the need for efficient and sustainable intermodal transport systems becomes increasingly important. This study addresses the optimization of container movement by intermodal transport with fixed train schedules. We emphasize the integration of road-rail intermodal transport amid uncertain demand and train (spot) capacities. A two-stage stochastic optimization model is developed to strategically manage the transportation of containers from multiple origins to designated intermodal hubs. By leveraging spot capacities at train stations and addressing uncertainties in demand and train capacity, the model integrates Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) to balance cost efficiency and risk management, enabling robust decision-making under uncertainty. The model's objectives encompass minimizing transportation costs, mitigating carbon emissions, and enhancing the reliability of containerized freight movement across the network. A comprehensive case study using real-world data demonstrates the practical applicability of the model, highlighting its effectiveness in reducing operational costs, minimizing environmental impacts, and providing actionable insights for stakeholders to navigate the trade-offs between expected costs and risk management in dynamic intermodal transport settings.