Constraints on AvERA Cosmologies from Cosmic Chronometers and Type Ia Supernovae

Abstract: We constrain AvERA cosmologies in comparison with the flat $\Lambda$CDM model using cosmic chronometer (CC) data and the Pantheon+ sample of type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). The analysis includes fits to both CC and SN datasets using the \texttt{dynesty} dynamic nested sampling algorithm. For model comparison, we use the Bayesian model evidences and Anderson-Darling tests applied to the normalized residuals to assess consistency with a standard normal distribution. Best-fit parameters are derived within the redshift ranges $z \leq 2$ for CCs and $z \leq 2.3$ for SNe. For the baseline AvERA cosmology, we obtain best-fit values of the Hubble constant of ${H_0=68.32_{-3.27}^{+3.21}~\mathrm{km~s^{-1}~Mpc^{-1}}}$ from the CC analysis and ${H_0=71.99_{-1.03}^{+1.05}~\mathrm{km~s^{-1}~Mpc^{-1}}}$ from the SN analysis, each consistent within $1\sigma$ with the corresponding AvERA simulation value of $H(z=0)$. While both the CC and SN datasets yield higher Bayesian evidence for the flat $\Lambda$CDM model, they favor the AvERA cosmologies according to the Anderson-Darling test. We have identified signs of overfitting in each model, which suggests the possibility of overestimating the uncertainties in the Pantheon+ covariance matrix.