Selective Inference in Graphical Models via Maximum Likelihood

Abstract: The graphical lasso is a widely used algorithm for fitting undirected Gaussian graphical models. However, for inference on functionals of edge values in the learned graph, standard tools lack formal statistical guarantees, such as control of the type I error rate. In this paper, we introduce a selective inference method for asymptotically valid inference after graphical lasso selection with added randomization. We obtain a selective likelihood, conditional on the event of selection, through a change of variable on the known density of the randomization variables. Our method enables interval estimation and hypothesis testing for a wide range of functionals of edge values in the learned graph using the conditional maximum likelihood estimate. Our numerical studies show that introducing a small amount of randomization: (i) greatly increases power and yields substantially shorter intervals compared to other conditional inference methods, including data splitting; (ii) ensures intervals of bounded length in high-dimensional settings where data splitting is infeasible due to insufficient samples for inference; (iii) enables inference for a wide range of inferential targets in the learned graph, including measures of node influence and connectivity between nodes.