Modeling Multivariate Degradation Data with Dynamic Covariates Under a Bayesian Framework

Abstract: Degradation data are essential for determining the reliability of high-end products and systems, especially when covering multiple degradation characteristics (DCs). Modern degradation studies not only measure these characteristics but also record dynamic system usage and environmental factors, such as temperature, humidity, and ultraviolet exposures, referred to as the dynamic covariates. Most current research either focuses on a single DC with dynamic covariates or multiple DCs with fixed covariates. This paper presents a Bayesian framework to analyze data with multiple DCs, which incorporates dynamic covariates. We develop a Bayesian framework for mixed effect nonlinear general path models to describe the degradation path and use Bayesian shape-constrained P-splines to model the effects of dynamic covariates. We also detail algorithms for estimating the failure time distribution induced by our degradation model, validate the developed methods through simulation, and illustrate their use in predicting the lifespan of organic coatings in dynamic environments.