Microlensing at Cosmological Distances: Event Rate Predictions in the Warhol Arc of MACS 0416

Abstract: Highly magnified stars ($\mu$ $>$ 100) are now outinely identified as transient events at cosmological distances thanks to microlensing by intra-cluster stars near the critical curves of galaxy clusters. Using the {\it James Webb} Space Telescope (JWST) in combination with the {\it Hubble} Space Telescope (HST), we outline here an analytical framework that is applied to the Warhol arc (at $z=0.94$) in the MACS 0416 galaxy cluster (at $z=0.396)$ where over a dozen microlensed stars have been detected to date. This method is general and can be applied to other lensed arcs. Within this lensed galaxy we fit the spatially resolved SED spanned by eight JWST-NIRCam filters combined with three ACS filters, for accurate lensed star predictions in 2D. With this tool we can generate 2D maps of microlensed stars for well resolved arcs in general, including dependence on wavelength and limiting apparent magnitude, for comparison with with planned cadenced campaigns for JWST and Hubble, for constraining directly the IMF and the level of dark matter substructure.