Predicting Children's Travel Modes for School Journeys in Switzerland: A Machine Learning Approach Using National Census Data

Abstract: Children's travel behavior plays a critical role in shaping long-term mobility habits and public health outcomes. Despite growing global interest, little is known about the factors influencing travel mode choice of children for school journeys in Switzerland. This study addresses this gap by applying a random forest classifier - a machine learning algorithm - to data from the Swiss Mobility and Transport Microcensus, in order to identify key predictors of children's travel mode choice for school journeys. Distance consistently emerges as the most important predictor across all models, for instance when distinguishing between active vs. non-active travel or car vs. non-car usage. The models show relatively high performance, with overall classification accuracy of 87.27% (active vs. non-active) and 78.97% (car vs. non-car), respectively. The study offers empirically grounded insights that can support school mobility policies and demonstrates the potential of machine learning in uncovering behavioral patterns in complex transport datasets.