Semiparametric Causal Discovery and Inference with Invalid Instruments

Abstract: Learning causal relationships among a set of variables, as encoded by a directed acyclic graph, from observational data is complicated by the presence of unobserved confounders. Instrumental variables (IVs) are a popular remedy for this issue, but most existing methods either assume the validity of all IVs or postulate a specific form of relationship, such as a linear model, between the primary variables and the IVs. To overcome these limitations, we introduce a partially linear structural equation model for causal discovery and inference that accommodates potentially invalid IVs and allows for general dependence of the primary variables on the IVs. We establish identification under this semiparametric model by constructing surrogate valid IVs, and develop a finite-sample procedure for estimating the causal structures and effects. Theoretically, we show that our procedure consistently learns the causal structures, yields asymptotically normal estimates, and effectively controls the false discovery rate in edge recovery. Simulation studies demonstrate the superiority of our method over existing competitors, and an application to inferring gene regulatory networks in Alzheimer's disease illustrates its usefulness.