Exploring zero-shot structure-based protein fitness prediction

Abstract: The ability to make zero-shot predictions about the fitness consequences of protein sequence changes with pre-trained machine learning models enables many practical applications. Such models can be applied for downstream tasks like genetic variant interpretation and protein engineering without additional labeled data. The advent of capable protein structure prediction tools has led to the availability of orders of magnitude more precomputed predicted structures, giving rise to powerful structure-based fitness prediction models. Through our experiments, we assess several modeling choices for structure-based models and their effects on downstream fitness prediction. Zero-shot fitness prediction models can struggle to assess the fitness landscape within disordered regions of proteins, those that lack a fixed 3D structure. We confirm the importance of matching protein structures to fitness assays and find that predicted structures for disordered regions can be misleading and affect predictive performance. Lastly, we evaluate an additional structure-based model on the ProteinGym substitution benchmark and show that simple multi-modal ensembles are strong baselines.