Do cosmological simulations reproduce the [OIII] 88 $μ$m line emission and properties of JWST-discovered galaxies at $z \geq 12$?

Abstract: Recent ALMA observations of the [OIII] 88 $\mu$m line provide spectroscopic confirmation of two JWST photometric candidates, GS-z14 and GHZ2, at $z=14.2$ and $z=12.3$, respectively. These discoveries reveal that star formation and chemical enrichment were already underway when the universe was merely 300 Myr old, posing a challenge to galaxy formation models. Here we construct post-processed models for the [OIII] emission lines from galaxies in the state-of-the-art FIRE and IllustrisTNG simulations. Neither simulation suite contains galaxies directly comparable to GS-z14 or GHZ2. However, one simulated FIRE galaxy closely resembles GS-z14 in its star formation rate (SFR), stellar mass, metallicity, [OIII] luminosity and line-width, albeit at $z=8.7$, lagging GS-z14's formation by roughly 300 Myr. Although further investigation is required, we argue that the lack of simulated galaxies matching GS-z14 and GHZ2 may largely be a consequence of the limited volume of the FIRE simulations and the limited mass resolution of Illustris-TNG. We quantify the prospects for follow-up spectroscopic detections of GS-z14 in the [OIII] 52 $\mu$m line with ALMA, and in rest-frame optical [OIII] and Balmer lines with the MIRI instrument on JWST.