Nonparametric Estimation of Matching Efficiency and Elasticity in a Marriage Agency Platform: 2014--2025

Abstract: This paper examines monthly matching efficiency in the Japanese marriage market using novel data from IBJ, the country's largest structured matching platform. Unlike administrative or dating app data, IBJ provides full search, dating, and matching logs based on verified profiles and confirmed engagements. Users are highly selected into serious marriage search via costly screening. Covering 3.3% of national marriages annually, the data offer rare behavioral granularity. Using a nonparametric approach, I estimate time-varying matching functions and elasticities. Efficiency rises threefold over time, illustrating how digital intermediation transforms partner search in modern marriage markets.