TV-SurvCaus: Dynamic Representation Balancing for Causal Survival Analysis

Abstract: Estimating the causal effect of time-varying treatments on survival outcomes is a challenging task in many domains, particularly in medicine where treatment protocols adapt over time. While recent advances in representation learning have improved causal inference for static treatments, extending these methods to dynamic treatment regimes with survival outcomes remains under-explored. In this paper, we introduce TV-SurvCaus, a novel framework that extends representation balancing techniques to the time-varying treatment setting for survival analysis. We provide theoretical guarantees through (1) a generalized bound for time-varying precision in estimation of heterogeneous effects, (2) variance control via sequential balancing weights, (3) consistency results for dynamic treatment regimes, (4) convergence rates for representation learning with temporal dependencies, and (5) a formal bound on the bias due to treatment-confounder feedback. Our neural architecture incorporates sequence modeling to handle temporal dependencies while balancing time-dependent representations. Through extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets, we demonstrate that TV-SurvCaus outperforms existing methods in estimating individualized treatment effects with time-varying covariates and treatments. Our framework advances the field of causal inference by enabling more accurate estimation of treatment effects in dynamic, longitudinal settings with survival outcomes.