Can a Referendum Solve Problems of Shared Sovereignty on Mars?

Abstract: Space exploration technology continues to expand humanity's reach beyond Earth, and even more ambitious efforts are striving to establish long-duration human settlements on Mars. The dependence of martian settlers on life-support infrastructure and on resupply missions from the host nation could create conditions for tyranny or lead to other extreme and uncontrollable situations, but such risks could be reduced by thinking about the possibilities for effective decision making on Mars before any settlement efforts actually occur. This paper examines the extent to which referendums could be used on Mars as a means of political decision-making and sovereignty adjudication. Our approach draws on three terrestrial case studies -- the Great Idaho Movement in the United States, the Catalan Independence Movement in Spain, and the Quebec Independence Movement in Canada -- as potential analogs for Mars governance. We recommend advance determination of the conditions under which a martian referendum would be recognized as a best practice for any agency seeking to establish a long-duration settlement on Mars. We suggest that referendums can reduce the likelihood of multiple authoritative political entities existing on Mars, which could provide a more procedural approach toward resolving governance issues between Earth and Mars. However, if Mars settlement is successful in establishing settlements on the scale of cities or larger, then other uniquely martian tools may evolve as a supplement or replacement to referendums.