Optimising cryptocurrency portfolios through stable clustering of price correlation networks

Abstract: The emerging cryptocurrency market presents unique challenges for investment due to its unregulated nature and inherent volatility. However, collective price movements can be explored to maximise profits with minimal risk using investment portfolios. In this paper, we develop a technical framework that utilises historical data on daily closing prices and integrates network analysis, price forecasting, and portfolio theory to identify cryptocurrencies for building profitable portfolios under uncertainty. Our method utilises the Louvain network community algorithm and consensus clustering to detect robust and temporally stable clusters of highly correlated cryptocurrencies, from which the chosen cryptocurrencies are selected. A price prediction step using the ARIMA model guarantees that the portfolio performs well for up to 14 days in the investment horizon. Empirical analysis over a 5-year period shows that despite the high volatility in the crypto market, hidden price patterns can be effectively utilised to generate consistently profitable, time-agnostic cryptocurrency portfolios.