Towards provable probabilistic safety for scalable embodied AI systems

Abstract: Embodied AI systems, comprising AI models and physical plants, are increasingly prevalent across various applications. Due to the rarity of system failures, ensuring their safety in complex operating environments remains a major challenge, which severely hinders their large-scale deployment in safety-critical domains, such as autonomous vehicles, medical devices, and robotics. While achieving provable deterministic safety--verifying system safety across all possible scenarios--remains theoretically ideal, the rarity and complexity of corner cases make this approach impractical for scalable embodied AI systems. To address this challenge, we introduce provable probabilistic safety, which aims to ensure that the residual risk of large-scale deployment remains below a predefined threshold. Instead of attempting exhaustive safety proof across all corner cases, this paradigm establishes a probabilistic safety boundary on overall system performance, leveraging statistical methods to enhance feasibility and scalability. A well-defined probabilistic safety boundary enables embodied AI systems to be deployed at scale while allowing for continuous refinement of safety guarantees. Our work focuses on three core questions: what is provable probabilistic safety, how to prove the probabilistic safety, and how to achieve the provable probabilistic safety. By bridging the gap between theoretical safety assurance and practical deployment, our work offers a pathway toward safer, large-scale adoption of embodied AI systems in safety-critical applications.