ClimateViz: A Benchmark for Statistical Reasoning and Fact Verification on Scientific Charts

Abstract: Scientific fact-checking has mostly focused on text and tables, overlooking scientific charts, which are key for presenting quantitative evidence and statistical reasoning. We introduce ClimateViz, the first large-scale benchmark for scientific fact-checking using expert-curated scientific charts. ClimateViz contains 49,862 claims linked to 2,896 visualizations, each labeled as support, refute, or not enough information. To improve interpretability, each example includes structured knowledge graph explanations covering trends, comparisons, and causal relations. We evaluate state-of-the-art multimodal LLMs, including both proprietary and open-source systems, in zero-shot and few-shot settings. Results show that current models struggle with chart-based reasoning: even the best systems, such as Gemini 2.5 and InternVL 2.5, reach only 76.2 to 77.8 percent accuracy in label-only settings, far below human performance (89.3 and 92.7 percent). Explanation-augmented outputs improve performance in some models. We released our dataset and code alongside the paper.