Semantic Certainty Assessment in Vector Retrieval Systems: A Novel Framework for Embedding Quality Evaluation

Abstract: Vector retrieval systems exhibit significant performance variance across queries due to heterogeneous embedding quality. We propose a lightweight framework for predicting retrieval performance at the query level by combining quantization robustness and neighborhood density metrics. Our approach is motivated by the observation that high-quality embeddings occupy geometrically stable regions in the embedding space and exhibit consistent neighborhood structures. We evaluate our method on 4 standard retrieval datasets, showing consistent improvements of 9.4$\pm$1.2\% in Recall@10 over competitive baselines. The framework requires minimal computational overhead (less than 5\% of retrieval time) and enables adaptive retrieval strategies. Our analysis reveals systematic patterns in embedding quality across different query types, providing insights for targeted training data augmentation.