Phenomenological Modeling of the $^{163}$Ho Calorimetric Electron Capture Spectrum from the HOLMES Experiment

Abstract: We present a comprehensive phenomenological analysis of the calorimetric electron capture (EC) decay spectrum of $^{163}$Ho as measured by the HOLMES experiment. Using high-statistics data, we unfold the instrumental energy resolution from the measured spectrum and model it as a sum of Breit-Wigner resonances and shake-off continua, providing a complete set of parameters for each component. Our approach enables the identification and tentative interpretation of all observed spectral features, including weak and overlapping structures, in terms of atomic de-excitation processes. We compare our phenomenological model with recent {\it ab initio} theoretical calculations, finding good agreement for both the main peaks and the spectral tails, despite the limitations of current theoretical and experimental precision. The model delivers an accurate description of the endpoint region, which is crucial for neutrino mass determination, and allows for a realistic treatment of backgrounds such as pile-up and tails of low-energy components. Furthermore, our decomposition facilitates the generation of Monte Carlo toy spectra for sensitivity studies and provides a framework for investigating systematic uncertainties related to solid-state and detector effects. This work establishes a robust foundation for future calorimetric neutrino mass experiments employing $^{163}$Ho, supporting both data analysis and experimental design.