Navigating the Lobbying Landscape: Insights from Opinion Dynamics Models

Abstract: While lobbying has been demonstrated to have an important effect on public opinion and policy making, existing models of opinion formation do not specifically include its effect. In this work we introduce a new model of opinion dynamics where lobbyists can implement complex strategies and are characterised by a finite budget. Individuals update their opinions through a learning process resembling Bayesian learning, but influenced by cognitive biases such as under-reaction and confirmation bias. We study the model numerically and demonstrate rich dynamics both with and without lobbyists. In the presence of lobbying, we observe two regimes: one in which lobbyists can have full influence on the agent network, and another where the peer-effect generates polarisation. When symmetric lobbyists are present, the lobbyist influence regime is characterised by long opinion oscillations, while in the transition area between the two regimes we observe convergence to the optimistic model when the lobbying influence is long enough. These rich dynamics pave the way for studying real lobbying strategies to validate the model in practice.