Preventing an Extractive Green Hydrogen Industry: Risks and Benefits of Grid Expansion and Green Hydrogen in and for Kenya

Abstract: This study evaluates the role of grid-connected hydrogen electrolyzers in advancing a cost-effective and in particular an equitable green hydrogen industry in Kenya to serve both domestic and international needs and markets. Using a multi-nodal capacity expansion model with county-level spatial resolution, we assess how electrolyzer deployment affects electricity cost, grid flexibility, and carbon intensity under various renewable and demand scenarios. Results show that electrolyzers enable up to 30 percent reduction in levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and US\$460 million in cumulative system cost savings by 2050 compared to a business-as-usual scenario. As a flexible demand available to absorb surplus generation, electrolyzers reduce curtailment and support large-scale wind integration while still requiring a diverse mix of renewable electricity. The resulting hydrogen reaches a levelized cost of \$3.2 per kg by 2050, and its carbon intensity from electricity use falls below one kg carbon dioxide per kg of hydrogen, suggesting likely compliance with international certification thresholds. Benefits persist across all demand trajectories, though their scale depends on the pace of wind expansion. Spatial analyses reveal unequal distribution of infrastructure gains, underscoring the need for equity-oriented planning. These findings suggest that grid-integrated hydrogen, if planned in coordination with wind investment, transmission, and equitable infrastructure deployment, can reduce costs, support certification, and promote a more equitable model of hydrogen development. In other words, connecting electrolyzers to the grid will not only make green hydrogen in Kenya but also for Kenya.