A multi-stage Bayesian approach to fit spatial point process models

Abstract: Spatial point process (SPP) models are commonly used to analyze point pattern data, including presence-only data in ecology. Current methods for fitting these models are computationally expensive because they require numerical quadrature and algorithm supervision (i.e., tuning) in the Bayesian setting. We propose a flexible and efficient multi-stage recursive Bayesian approach to fitting SPP models that leverages parallel computing resources to estimate point process model coefficients and derived quantities. We show how this method can be extended to study designs with compact observation windows and allows for posterior prediction of total abundance and points in unobserved areas, which can be used for downstream analyses. We demonstrate this approach using a simulation study and analyze data from aerial imagery surveys to improve our understanding of spatially explicit abundance of harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) in Johns Hopkins Inlet, a protected tidewater glacial fjord in Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska.