Deconstructing the Crystal Ball: From Ad-Hoc Prediction to Principled Startup Evaluation with the SAISE Framework

Abstract: The integration of AI into startup evaluation represents a significant technological shift, yet the academic research underpinning this transition remains methodologically fragmented. Existing studies often employ ad-hoc approaches, leading to a body of work with inconsistent definitions of success, atheoretical features, and a lack of rigorous validation. This fragmentation severely limits the comparability, reliability, and practical utility of current predictive models. To address this critical gap, this paper presents a comprehensive systematic literature review of 57 empirical studies. We deconstruct the current state-of-the-art by systematically mapping the features, algorithms, data sources, and evaluation practices that define the AI-driven startup prediction landscape. Our synthesis reveals a field defined by a central paradox: a strong convergence on a common toolkit -- venture databases and tree-based ensembles -- but a stark divergence in methodological rigor. We identify four foundational weaknesses: a fragmented definition of "success," a divide between theory-informed and data-driven feature engineering, a chasm between common and best-practice model validation, and a nascent approach to data ethics and explainability. In response to these findings, our primary contribution is the proposal of the Systematic AI-driven Startup Evaluation (SAISE) Framework. This novel, five-stage prescriptive roadmap is designed to guide researchers from ad-hoc prediction toward principled evaluation. By mandating a coherent, end-to-end methodology that emphasizes stage-aware problem definition, theory-informed data synthesis, principled feature engineering, rigorous validation, and risk-aware interpretation, the SAISE framework provides a new standard for conducting more comparable, robust, and practically relevant research in this rapidly maturing domain