MeteorPred: A Meteorological Multimodal Large Model and Dataset for Severe Weather Event Prediction

Abstract: Timely and accurate severe weather warnings are critical for disaster mitigation. However, current forecasting systems remain heavily reliant on manual expert interpretation, introducing subjectivity and significant operational burdens. With the rapid development of AI technologies, the end-to-end "AI weather station" is gradually emerging as a new trend in predicting severe weather events. Three core challenges impede the development of end-to-end AI severe weather system: (1) scarcity of severe weather event samples; (2) imperfect alignment between high-dimensional meteorological data and textual warnings; (3) existing multimodal LLMs are unable to handle high-dimensional meteorological data and struggle to fully capture the complex dependencies across temporal sequences, vertical pressure levels, and spatial dimensions. To address these challenges, we introduce MP-Bench, the first large-scale temporal multimodal dataset for severe weather events prediction, comprising 421,363 pairs of raw multi-year meteorological data and corresponding text caption, covering a wide range of severe weather scenarios across China. On top of this dataset, we develop a meteorology multimodal large model (MMLM) that directly ingests 4D meteorological inputs. In addition, it is designed to accommodate the unique characteristics of 4D meteorological data flow, incorporating three plug-and-play adaptive fusion modules that enable dynamic feature extraction and integration across temporal sequences, vertical pressure layers, and spatial dimensions. Extensive experiments on MP-Bench demonstrate that MMLM performs exceptionally well across multiple tasks, highlighting its effectiveness in severe weather understanding and marking a key step toward realizing automated, AI-driven weather forecasting systems. Our source code and dataset will be made publicly available.