Nuclear suppression in diffractive vector meson production within the color glass condensate framework

Abstract: We perform a global Bayesian analysis of diffractive $\mathrm{J}/\psi$ production in $\gamma+p$ and $\gamma+\mathrm{Pb}$ collisions within a Color Glass Condensate based framework. Using data from HERA and the LHC, we find that a simultaneous description of $\gamma+p$ and $\gamma+\mathrm{Pb}$ observables is challenging. Introducing a global $K$-factor to account for theoretical uncertainties improves the agreement with data and enhances the framework's predictive power. We present predictions for integrated $\mathrm{J}/\psi$ cross sections at different photon-nucleus energies and study their $A$-dependence relative to a no-saturation baseline, quantifying nuclear suppression and providing insights into the onset of saturation effects.