Non-Linear Model-Based Sequential Decision-Making in Agriculture

Abstract: Sequential decision-making is central to sustainable agricultural management and precision agriculture, where resource inputs must be optimized under uncertainty and over time. However, such decisions must often be made with limited observations, whereas classical bandit and reinforcement learning approaches typically rely on either linear or black-box reward models that may misrepresent domain knowledge or require large amounts of data. We propose a family of nonlinear, model-based bandit algorithms that embed domain-specific response curves directly into the exploration-exploitation loop. By coupling (i) principled uncertainty quantification with (ii) closed-form or rapidly computable profit optima, these algorithms achieve sublinear regret and near-optimal sample complexity while preserving interpretability. Theoretical analysis establishes regret and sample complexity bounds, and extensive simulations emulating real-world fertilizer-rate decisions show consistent improvements over both linear and nonparametric baselines (such as linear UCB and $k$-NN UCB) in the low-sample regime, under both well-specified and shape-compatible misspecified models. Because our approach leverages mechanistic insight rather than large data volumes, it is especially suited to resource-constrained settings, supporting sustainable, inclusive, and transparent sequential decision-making across agriculture, environmental management, and allied applications. This methodology directly contributes to SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) and SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production) by enabling data-driven, less wasteful agricultural practices.