AR-KAN: Autoregressive-Weight-Enhanced Kolmogorov-Arnold Network for Time Series Forecasting

Abstract: Conventional neural networks frequently face challenges in spectral analysis of signals. To address this challenge, Fourier neural networks (FNNs) and similar approaches integrate components of Fourier series into the structure of neural networks. Nonetheless, a significant hurdle is often overlooked: the superposition of periodic signals does not necessarily result in a periodic signal. For example, when forecasting almost periodic functions composed of signals with incommensurate frequencies, traditional models such as Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) frequently outperform most neural networks including LLMs. To tackle this goal, we propose Autoregressive-Weight-Enhanced AR-KAN, a hybrid model that combines the benefits of both methods. Using the Universal Myopic Mapping Theorem, we apply a Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (KAN) for the static nonlinear part and include memory through a pre-trained AR component, which can be explained to retain the most useful information while eliminating redundancy. Experimental data indicates that AR-KAN delivers superior results on $72\%$ of real-world datasets.